Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2014-15


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Wisconsin 100.0%   1   31 - 3 16 - 2 31 - 3 16 - 2 +21.1      +10.5 3 +10.5 3 55.3 345 +21.8 6 +20.7 1
15 Ohio St. 97.0%   9   23 - 10 11 - 7 23 - 10 11 - 7 +14.9      +7.4 15 +7.4 15 69.6 96 +11.8 30 +12.0 6
17 Michigan St. 100.0%   4   23 - 11 12 - 6 23 - 11 12 - 6 +14.1      +7.1 17 +7.1 17 64.3 231 +12.6 26 +13.1 5
22 Iowa 99.2%   7   21 - 11 12 - 6 21 - 11 12 - 6 +13.0      +6.5 22 +6.5 22 65.4 190 +12.0 29 +14.3 3
31 Maryland 100.0%   4   27 - 6 14 - 4 27 - 6 14 - 4 +11.2      +5.6 31 +5.6 31 65.8 180 +17.2 10 +17.1 2
38 Purdue 96.6%   8   21 - 12 12 - 6 21 - 12 12 - 6 +10.3      +5.1 38 +5.1 38 67.1 148 +10.8 35 +13.7 4
43 Indiana 86.0%   10   20 - 13 9 - 9 20 - 13 9 - 9 +9.8      +4.9 43 +4.9 43 70.6 73 +9.4 47 +9.6 7
48 Minnesota 0.0%   17 - 15 6 - 12 17 - 15 6 - 12 +9.3      +4.6 48 +4.6 48 73.6 29 +6.9 74 +5.3 11
49 Illinois 48.7%   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +9.2      +4.6 49 +4.6 49 67.3 142 +8.7 51 +9.0 8
64 Michigan 0.0%   15 - 16 8 - 10 15 - 16 8 - 10 +7.4      +3.7 64 +3.7 64 56.8 341 +7.3 67 +8.1 9
76 Penn St. 0.0%   18 - 16 4 - 14 18 - 16 4 - 14 +6.2      +3.1 76 +3.1 76 68.4 120 +6.1 82 +1.7 13
95 Northwestern 0.0%   15 - 17 6 - 12 15 - 17 6 - 12 +4.5      +2.2 95 +2.2 95 58.3 336 +5.1 92 +6.3 10
103 Nebraska 0.0%   13 - 18 5 - 13 13 - 18 5 - 13 +4.1      +2.0 103 +2.0 103 63.5 256 +3.9 106 +4.6 12
177 Rutgers 0.0%   10 - 22 2 - 16 10 - 22 2 - 16 -0.8      -0.4 177 -0.4 177 67.6 138 +1.0 148 -2.1 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Wisconsin 1.0 100.0
Ohio St. 6.0 100.0
Michigan St. 3.0 100.0
Iowa 3.0 100.0
Maryland 2.0 100.0
Purdue 3.0 100.0
Indiana 7.0 100.0
Minnesota 10.0 100.0
Illinois 7.0 100.0
Michigan 9.0 100.0
Penn St. 13.0 100.0
Northwestern 10.0 100.0
Nebraska 12.0 100.0
Rutgers 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wisconsin 16 - 2 100.0
Ohio St. 11 - 7 100.0
Michigan St. 12 - 6 100.0
Iowa 12 - 6 100.0
Maryland 14 - 4 100.0
Purdue 12 - 6 100.0
Indiana 9 - 9 100.0
Minnesota 6 - 12 100.0
Illinois 9 - 9 100.0
Michigan 8 - 10 100.0
Penn St. 4 - 14 100.0
Northwestern 6 - 12 100.0
Nebraska 5 - 13 100.0
Rutgers 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wisconsin 100.0% 100.0
Ohio St.
Michigan St.
Iowa
Maryland
Purdue
Indiana
Minnesota
Illinois
Michigan
Penn St.
Northwestern
Nebraska
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wisconsin 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   70.0 29.5 0.5
Ohio St. 97.0% 0.0% 97.0% 9   0.0 0.6 1.9 12.0 31.0 35.2 14.8 1.5 0.0 3.0 97.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.0 2.8 26.4 45.8 21.9 3.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 7   0.0 0.6 6.7 16.7 42.2 27.1 5.7 0.3 0.0 0.8 99.2%
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.0 0.7 35.3 55.7 8.0 0.3 100.0%
Purdue 96.6% 0.0% 96.6% 8   0.1 0.8 10.8 44.3 34.2 6.2 0.2 3.4 96.6%
Indiana 86.0% 0.0% 86.0% 10   0.1 3.1 18.9 45.1 18.7 0.2 14.0 86.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Illinois 48.7% 0.0% 48.7% 0.0 0.8 8.0 33.7 6.1 51.3 48.7%
Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.2% 81.7% 62.3% 39.6% 22.5% 11.9%
Ohio St. 97.0% 0.1% 97.0% 63.4% 19.5% 10.4% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 76.6% 41.2% 13.1% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4%
Iowa 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 62.0% 19.2% 7.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 76.4% 36.4% 9.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Purdue 96.6% 0.0% 96.6% 45.5% 7.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Indiana 86.0% 3.7% 84.2% 35.1% 7.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 48.7% 26.8% 35.0% 13.1% 3.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.3 0.4 9.5 52.5 37.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.6 13.0 60.3 26.1
2nd Round 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.1 2.1 11.6 28.2 34.2 19.2 4.3 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 97.5% 2.2 2.5 22.8 40.6 25.3 7.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 79.5% 1.1 20.5 54.5 21.8 3.0 0.2 0.0
Final Four 49.4% 0.5 50.6 44.7 4.6 0.1
Final Game 26.3% 0.3 73.7 25.7 0.5
Champion 13.0% 0.1 87.0 13.0